NDA activists take to the streets of Patna to enforce the bandh on Tuesday. Picture by Deepak Kumar

New Delhi, May 24: The rivals will clash again ? the question is when.

Key players have begun watching the Election Commission’s moves for possible signals, a day after the Bihar Assembly was dissolved.

While the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal are not keen on a showdown before October-November, the Janata Dal (United) and the BJP want early elections.

A decision on the timing, however, rests with the poll panel, which three years ago had asserted its exclusive powers to reject Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi’s argument for holding early polls in the riot-racked state.

Analysts say the commission could explore three different schedules.

Normally, fresh elections are held before the end of President’s rule, which, in Bihar’s case, is September 6. But, in the past, when President’s rule was imposed on a state to pave the way for fresh polls, the Assembly was simultaneously dissolved.

The Bihar legislature was, however, dissolved yesterday, nearly two-and-a-half months after central rule came into force in the state following the fractured mandate in the February elections.

One option before the commission is to complete the poll process by November 22 ? that is, within six months of yesterday’s dissolution of the House. This is what the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance also appears to have indicated to the three-member panel.

The commission could also consider a third option.

If the polls are not held by September 6 ? which is likely to be the case because of factors like the onset of monsoon and the usual flood conditions in Bihar during the rainy season ?an extension of President’s rule is inevitable. The Centre, too, has hinted that it could extend the tenure by six months.

In such a scenario, central rule will be in force in the state till March 5, 2006. The commission could then be inclined to hold the elections early next year by clubbing them with scheduled Assembly polls in Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Pondicherry.

Assembly polls in the five states are due in April and the commission could consider advancing them by a couple of months for the sake of convenience.

If the polls fall within six months of the end of an Assembly’s tenure, the commission has the power to advance them by a few months so that similar exercises can be clubbed. However, the panel usually consults the respective state governments before taking a decision.

In the case of Gujarat, Modi had invoked Article 174(1) of the Constitution to press for immediate polls. The provision requires that the gap between two sessions of an Assembly should not exceed six months.

The commission agreed that in normal situations the argument was sound. But it said in the interest of free and fair polls, the provision must yield to Article 324 under which a decision on timing of polls rests with the commission after an assessment of the ground situation.

In Bihar’s case, Article 174 does not apply at all as the Assembly’s operation stood suspended on March 7 when the Centre brought the state under President’s rule. The move was necessitated because the last session of the House had concluded in September 2004 and, under the Constitution, the new Assembly had to meet latest by March 8.

But as no government could be formed in the wake of the fractured poll verdict, the new House could not meet and was also put under suspended animation.