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Nepal wait and watch

New Delhi, April 26: India might adopt a ?carrot-and-stick? policy to ensure that King Gyanendra delivers on some of his assurances while helping him in his fight against the Maoists by opening the tap a little on military assistance.

India had assured Nepal it would soon resume arms supply, put on hold since the king?s February 1 coup, after a meeting between Gyanendra and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Jakarta last week.

But the Left parties, which are opposed to resumption of military supplies till the king restores democracy in his country, appear to have succeeded in putting a stop to an immediate delivery of an arms consignment.

The biggest challenge before the Indian establishment is when to resume supplies and whether what it sees as an appropriate time would also be acceptable to the CPM and the CPI.

Left leaders who met Singh yesterday have made it clear that apart from lifting the emergency, Gyanendra has to release all political prisoners, allow them to function independently and remove the censorship on the Nepalese media.

Conventional wisdom in South Block suggests April 30 could be a significant date when the first signals of what Gyanendra proposes to do would come. The ordinance he issued on February 1 to impose emergency expires on that day. The king may not extend it to assure Delhi and some key western allies, particularly the US and the European Union, that he is moving to restore democracy. But the question remains whether India would see this as a good enough step.

The flip-flop on the arms issue has also brought to the fore serious differences in the foreign policy establishment in Delhi. It is not clear yet whether foreign minister K. Natwar Singh, who met Gyanendra on Friday, had already given him an assurance on resuming arms supply even before the king met the Prime Minister. It could be that when the monarch repeated the request, Singh could only go along with what his foreign minister had already told Gyanendra the day before.

It is evident that the commitment given by India was to be kept a secret for some time. However, the king gave it away when he told a TV reporter about Delhi?s assurance. The Prime Minister?s aides tried to control the damage when they realised that the king?s comments had started making news back home by asking Singh to tell the Indian media that he would look into the king?s request in the ?proper perspective?.

Presumably, the Left parties came out with a strong protest. But even after that, senior sources in the government emphasised that ?the first consignment of arms which was in the pipeline? would go through very soon.

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