The story of the 2004 Lok Sabha elections could have been easily repeated during the 2005 assembly elections, had the three political parties ? the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress and Lok Jan Shakti Party ? contested the forthcoming elections as allies. But Ram Vilas Paswan has already made it clear that his party will have no alliance with the ruling RJD in Bihar. The leaders of JD (U) approached him for an alliance and were even ready to break the alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party, but nothing progressed on that. Now, while JD (U) will contest 138 seats, the BJP will contest 105.

Though the talks on alliance and seat-sharing between the RJD and the Congress have still not been finalized, it is most likely that the two will contest as allies. Paswan?s moving out of the grand Congress-RJD-LJP alliance of the Lok Sabha elections will adversely affect the prospects of the RJD. But Paswan may not gain much other than playing the spoiler for the RJD in some constituencies, cutting into the Dalit vote. The question is, can the RJD clinch another victory in Bihar?

Laloo Prasad Yadav seems to be confident of yet another victory in the state even without the LJP. Laloo Yadav, who once said that ?Bihar would be divided over my dead body?, seems to have gained politically from the division of Bihar. The reasons are simple. For one, a comparison with the previous electoral performances of the RJD in undivided Bihar will show that the party?s support base has increased in the state after the division.

Let us look at the results of the 1998 Lok Sabha polls in undivided Bihar. While the RJD polled 26.6 per cent votes in undivided Bihar, its vote?s share in the 2004 election went up by nearly 5.3 per cent. Similarly, while the RJD polled 28.3 per cent votes in the 1999 Lok Sabha polls in undivided Bihar, its votes went up by 5.6 per cent in present Bihar. The trend continues even for the 2000 assembly elections.

All the important political parties in undivided Bihar had a presence in different regions of the state. While the RJD had the strongest presence in north Bihar, the Samata Party or JD (U) had strong support in central Bihar. The BJP, the Congress and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha had their presence in south Bihar, which is now in Jharkhand. The division of Bihar also resulted in the decrease in the vote share of the main opposition party ? the BJP. While the BJP polled 24 per cent votes in the 1998 general elections, its vote share came down to 17.5 per cent in the Lok Sabha polls in present Bihar. In the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, the vote share went down from 23 per cent in undivided Bihar to 16.9 per cent. The trend continued for the 2000 assembly elections.

The BJP?s alliance partner, the JD (U) had benefited marginally from the division of the state. It witnessed an increase in vote share by 1.8 per cent in 1998, 6.3 per cent in 1999 and 1.2 per cent in the 2000 polls. Similarly, the vote share for the Samata Party increased by 4.8 during the 1998 Lok Sabha and only 1.9 per cent during the 2000 assembly elections.

Since the Congress had its support base concentrated in south Bihar, the vote share of the party also went down in present Bihar. This was reflected in the results of the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. Though the alliance with the Congress and the LJP benefited the RJD, its victory should be attributed to the favourable political situation. Of the 26 Lok Sabha seats the party contested, it won 22 and polled 30.7 per cent votes. Its alliance partner, the LJP, managed to win four of the eight Lok Sabha seats which the party contested. The Congress, contesting the 2004 polls in alliance with the RJD, won three of the four seats contested, and polled 4.5 per cent votes. What changed the political scenario in the state after the division of Bihar?

The increased or decreased support base of different political parties reflected in the relative strength or weakness of political parties. The post-poll surveys of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies indicated that voters belonging to different castes had been sharply polarized in favour of different political parties. While the Yadavs and the Muslims had remained with the RJD, the Samata Party-JD (U) became popular among voters of the other backward classes, Kurmis and Koeris. The BJP has strong presence among the upper castes and the adivasis. The Congress also has presence among the upper castes, adivasis and Dalits. The findings of the CSDS indicate that between 65-75 per cent of the Yadavs and Muslims had voted for the RJD for all the elections held in the state during the last one decade. In these elections, a similar proportion among the Kurmis and the Koeris voted for the Samata-JD (U). With a support of 60-70 per cent votes, the upper castes seem to be solidly standing behind the BJP. The Dalits showed divided loyalty, switching among the RJD, the BJP and the Congress from time to time. The influence of Paswan on the Dalits, especially the Dusadhas, seem to have an effect on their voting preferences.

The settlement pattern of people belonging to different castes has been somewhat different. While south Bihar (now Jharkhand) had the largest concentration of adivasis, Yadavs and Muslims, were largely concentrated in north Bihar. The Central region of undivided Bihar, especially the districts of Nalanda, Gaya, Nawada, Barh and Munger, had seen a sizeable number of Kurmis and Koeris. While the actual number of Yadavs or Muslims or adivasis have not changed, their share in the population of Bihar and Jharkhand has changed. As per the census, the proportion of Muslims and Dalits in Bihar had gone up from 14.8 and 14.0 per cent respectively in 1991 to 16.5 and 17.1 in 2001. Though there are no official figures for the Yadavs, the surveys suggest that their share in the population of Bihar has increased by about 3 per cent. Yadavs now constitute about 16 per cent of total population in Bihar. Muslims and Yadavs combined constitute nearly 32.5 per cent of the population. But will their support ensure another victory for the RJD?

The BJP-JD (U) alliance still remains a formidable force in the state. The RJD will also face the anti-incumbency factor. People complain of zero development in the last 15 years of RJD rule. The findings of the National Election Study 2004 indicate that in important development issues, the performance of the state has been negative. The survey indicates that 54 per cent voters cited deteriorating conditions of the roads, medical facilities and electric supply, while only about 11 per cent argued otherwise. On issues like security of life and property, 41 per cent of the people had criticized the RJD government and another 33 per cent bad-mouthed the drinking water supply. Laloo Prasad Yadav would obviously need tact to answer the people on the issue of non-development.

It is true that in spite of non-performance, the RJD had managed to win the assembly elections in 1990, 1995 and 2000. People often believe that it is the charisma of Laloo Yadav, who is considered to be the ?messiah of the poor?, that had won the RJD the elections. This is somewhat true since people still believe that the RJD has given the poor and downtrodden the izzat they craved for.

But the findings of NES 2004 survey also suggest the image of messiah Laloo is no more as strong as it used to be a few years back. There are people who still believe that Laloo Yadav will do them justice, but those who tend to disbelieve the leader now outnumber the former group. The findings of the survey suggest that 64 per cent people blame him for personally encouraging criminals and 56 per cent regard him as corrupt. The erosion of Laloo Yadav?s image could cost the party dear.

However, despite this, the RJD registered an impressive victory in 2004. Had it been an assembly poll, the RJD would have won 114 assembly seats, its alliance partner LJP 28 seats, and the Congress 17 seats. On the other side, the BJP would have won 28 seats and the JD (U) 45 assembly seats. It is certain that Paswan?s exit from the Congress-RJD-LJP alliance of 2004 will cost the RJD, but only the results will show to what extent.