Swaminathan: Optimistic

New Delhi, July 7: M.S. Swaminathan — the godfather of the sixties’ green revolution in Punjab — reckons that farm sector growth will not plunge as dramatically in 2004-05 as the Cassandras have been projecting.

Most forecasts have put farm sector growth around 3.5 per cent this year after an expansive 9.1 per cent in 2003-04. Swaminathan isn’t as pessimistic: he reckons the monsoon forecast is not bad and the sector should continue to grow.

GDP growth in 2003-04 has been put at 8.2 per cent, largely on the back of a strong farm sector growth. But most analysts say it can’t be sustained, with an apex industry forum going so far as to say that farm sector growth would dip to 3.5 per cent and industry would once again have to shoulder the burden of ensuring that the economy continues to grow at a fast pace.

“God knows why they have made such a forecast. I am very optimistic and will go by the Met department’s projection of a normal monsoon this year as well. I have no reason to disbelieve them. They have the most sophisticated models of prediction,” Swaminathan told The Telegraph on the day the government released its economic survey.

He said India’s agricultural growth depended on horticulture, animal husbandry and growth in poultry. “It is a complete baggage, one cannot ignore either of these sub-sectors,” he added.

He said the improved post-harvest technology (processing, storing and producer-oriented marketing) would go a long way to ensure sustained growth in the farm sector.

The agricultural scientist now heads an eponymous organisation — M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF) — which works with a number of associations to take the benefits of information and communication technology to rural India.

It plans to create rural knowledge centres that will be operated by self-help groups.

“The farmers can then take help and all the necessary information from this radio- and Internet-enabled technology and apply to their crops,” he said.

“The infrastructure facilities and public policies will have to be put in place by the government,” he said.