The time limit for a majority government in a two-party system is now usually 10 to 12 years. After that, it is living on borrowed time. Neither major party in the United States of America has held the White House for more than 12 years since Franklin Roosevelt’s time, and only the Margaret Thatcher-John Major combination made it past the 12-year mark in Britain in the past half-century.

It certainly hasn’t happened in Canada in the past fifty years, and it looks like this time will be no exception. Six months after Jean Chretien stepped down after 10 years as prime minister, the voters seem likely to dump his successor, Paul Martin, in the elections being held today, or at least force the Liberals into a coalition or a minority government. And the question is: did Chretien intend this to happen?

Chretien had the charisma of a sea cucumber, his gangster looks and his bad English (and bad French) led one wit to dub him “the guy who drove the getaway car”. But nobody matched him at the practical side of politics: working the rooms, rewarding the supporters, and managing the issues.

He also picked good people. His most important choice was Paul Martin as finance minister; it was Martin who brought the huge deficit and the crushing national debt that the Liberals inherited from Brian Mulroney’s Conservative government under control, and produced the current Canadian economic miracle of high employment, low-debt and no deficit. But Martin was also heir apparent, and he and Chretien clearly hated each other.

Temporary slide

Two years ago, Martin quit the government and began a guerilla war within the Liberal Party that last December forced Chretien into retirement. When Martin became prime minister, the polls said the Liberals couldn’t possibly lose. Now he is hanging on the ropes — and the suspicion lingers that this is not just bad luck.

The Liberals looked set to win another term easily at the 10-year mark, because Canada has probably the healthiest economy in the G-8 right now. But they will almost certainly be thrown out of power. This is not an appetizing prospect for a party that has come to think of itself as the “natural party of government”.

A brief period right now as a minority government, or even in opposition, would be sensible from the Liberal point of view. Not a long period — just long enough to let the voters vent their anger and frustration, and then the Liberals can come back with the slate wiped clean for another 10 years in power.

So maybe sacrificing Martin’s government (which excluded all the old Chretien loyalists anyway), in the confident expectation that a different Liberal government will be back in a year or two, was not such an unthinkable act for Chretien. And he had the weapon at hand: a damning report by the auditor-general on Liberal sleaze that was originally scheduled to go to parliament late last year. If that had happened, Chretien would have had to take the blame — which would have given Martin a clean slate.

Passing the buck

That’s not what the Old Master did. He sent parliament home early, which postponed the damning report until the new year, and then retired at Christmas. The report came out just after Martin took office, and has been a millstone around his neck ever since. It wasn’t the worst piece of corruption the country has seen — a hundred million dollars or so channelled to Quebec advertising firms with Liberal links for a pro-Canada, anti-separatist campaign — but it has become a lighting rod for the disaffection of Canadian voters with a party that suddenly feels like it has been in power for too long.

So the Liberals will either lose power or be forced to form a coalition or a minority government, and Paul Martin will be a humiliated, soon-to-be has-been. Then in a year or so there will probably be another election, and the Liberals will be back in power with a new leader and all their sins purged. That’s probably how Chretien intends it to play out — and he is the slyest politician on two legs.