Time to deliver

As a victory, it was quite unexpected. On the morning of May 13, Naveen Patnaik was closeted with a few young leaders of his party inside the chill interiors of Naveen Niwas when television channels started flashing news of a decisive lead for the ruling Biju Janata Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party coalition. Though the Orissa chief minister and BJD chief nursed hopes of the alliance retaining power, the drubbing of the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh two days ago too seemed to be playing on his mind. It was only after the reality of the results had sunk in several hours later, that a nervously smiling Patnaik, in spotless kurta and churidar, emerged to talk to the assembled reporters.

Patnaik was lucky to have survived the prevailing anti-incumbency that had thrown out the Vajpayee government at the Centre, as also N. Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh and S.M. Krishna in Karnataka. Not only did the ruling BJD-BJP alliance retain power in Orissa, bagging 93 seats in the state assembly, but it also did very well in the Lok Sabha elections, winning in 18 of the 21 constituencies in the state.

In the process, Patnaik became chief minister for a second consecutive term, something that even his father had not been able to achieve, although he was far more popular than his son. Biju Patnaik had had to wait for nearly three decades to become chief minister again in 1990. But the Janata Dal strongman could not retain his chair in 1995 when he was bested by the J.B. Patnaik-led Congress. While the popular vote for Naveen was a measure of the reverence bestowed on his father, Patnaik also owes the victory to his clean image and the statesman-like image of Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

When he entered politics after his father died in 1997, the 58-year-old Patnaik was a novice. When the BJD first won the assembly elections in 2000, it was attributed to the sympathy generated by his father’s death. But it was in the 2004 elections that Biju Patnaik’s son came into his own. Though there were constant references to the father during the campaign, the spotlight was firmly on the son.

Aware of his dismal performance, Patnaik had called assembly elections a year ahead of schedule in the hope of benefiting from Vajpayee’s image. He also took care to see that BJD and BJP votes were not divided, as it would have benefited the Congress. In the 240 meetings he addressed, Patnaik made references to the corruption and crony nepotism of his predecessor, J.B. Patnaik.

With BJD discards like Dilip Ray, Ramakrushna Patnaik, Nalini Mohanty and Sarat Kar swelling the Congress ranks, the chief minister’s labelling the Congress as a “Corruption club” struck a chord with the electorate. People also applauded Naveen Patnaik when he ridiculed the Orissa Congress chief for perpetuating the politics of the stree-jamai-and-jamaika-bhai (extended family). He also played up the dismissals of senior ministers and bureaucrats as evidence of his sincerity in the crusade against corruption.

Though no one expected Naveen to notch an effortless victory, the seeds of the Congress defeat were sown when the controversial J.B. Patnaik took over as state unit chief in February. Even as the three-time chief minister welcomed BJD discards, Naveen Patnaik shrewdly turned the battle into a clash of personalities — Mr Clean versus Mr Dubious. As expected, all the BJD rebels barring Nalini Mohanty were decimated. Even Bijoy Mohapatra, a prominent opponent of the chief minister, could not hold on to his Patkura assembly seat. Though the Congress improved its tally to 38, it was a personal defeat for J.B. Patnaik.

“People perceived that Naveen was a lesser evil than JB,” argues Rabi Das, the editor of the Oriya daily, Paryabekhyak. Das believes that the Congress campaign did not work because the party hardly talked of burning issues like the rising prices of essential commodities, kerosene and edible oil in the last four years. Also none of the allegations of corruption the Congress brought against the chief minister, stuck.

But Mohapatra’s allegation that Patnaik used money and muscle to muzzle his opponents appears to have robbed his victory of some of its sheen. Days before the polls, the Kendrapara district administration apparently resorted to indiscriminate arrest of Mohapatra’s supporters in Patkura in order to stop them from campaigning. Atanu Sabyasachi, a Patnaik acolyte, defeated Mohapatra in Patkura by just 2,800 votes. Mohapatra’s allegation seems to have been vindicated by the Election Commission, which transferred the Kendrapara collector, Hemant Sharma, for misuse of official machinery during the polls.

Despite his obsession with transparency and a clean administration, Patnaik miserably failed to give his government a sense of direction in his first term. Ministers in his previous cabinet were known to be inept and corrupt, but the new ministry is hardly any better since ministers of dubious repute like Damodar Rout, Suryo Patro, Prafulla Ghadai and Kelindi Behera have been retained. Thus, for all his talk of a clean image, Patnaik does not seem to have gone beyond symbolism. Not particularly known for his administrative skills, he could again be relying on a bureaucracy that hates innovation or change, and is known for its negotiable integrity.

The only consolation for Patnaik could be that the BJP has forfeited much of its bargaining power with the loss at the Centre. Besides, it has won only 31 of the 64 assembly seats it contested. But the vote-share of both the BJD and BJP has gone down, while that of the Congress has risen from 33.78 per cent in 2000 to 34.79 per cent this year. The BJD lost 7 seats as its tally came down to 61 from 68 in the last assembly.

Having failed to deliver in his first innings, Patnaik’s second term is laden with heightened expectations; the state’s illiterate and impoverished people desperately want him to show results. Winning elections was the easy part, the real problem is running the state, which is on the verge of financial bankruptcy. The state’s debt burden is likely to touch Rs 32,512.34 crore by the end of 2004-05. Salaries and pension, and interest payment on loans comprise a whopping 77 per cent of the state’s annual expenditure. Besides, the new government at the Centre may not be sympathetic to Orissa unlike the previous regime. Thus, Patnaik has to use all his persuasive skills to get the best for Orissa.

As of now, Patnaik looks invincible since all his detractors have been defeated. But there is no time for euphoria. The parched lands of rural Orissa desperately need water and basic infrastructure like roads and hospitals, the youth in the cities and villages need jobs, and the old want social security. JB’s exit also has a lesson for Patnaik — people will not accept corruption, back-room conspiracy and crony nepotism; they want development that has so far eluded them.

A crusade against corruption is fine, but it needs to be matched by a crusade against poverty in a state where over 47 per cent of the people live below the poverty line. While people forgave Patnaik’s pathetic performance in the first term, they will be as merciless as the Andhra voters if he fails to fulfil his promises. That is something Patnaik must try to avoid at any cost.