The Telegraph
Since 1st March, 1999
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Hung House prospect persists: Survey

New Delhi, April 24: The National Democratic Alliance is projected to get between 267 and 279 seats, according to a new survey.

The nationwide opinion poll commissioned by STAR News and The Telegraph was conducted by C-voter between April 18 and 23 and covered 80 seats across 21 states.

An earlier survey by C-voter for STAR News in March-end had given the NDA 277 seats. The marginal difference is mainly because of the sharp loss of ground the NDA is said to have suffered in Andhra Pradesh since. But in Bihar, the survey shows a significant recovery for the alliance.

The Congress and its allies have gained marginally, the poll shows, and are projected to win 161-173 seats.

The projected tally of the Left parties, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party is 97-109 seats. In the earlier survey, these parties were given a tally of 102 seats.

Of the 137 seats that go to polls in the second round on April 26, the NDA is projected to win 69-81, the Congress and its allies 39-51 and the rest 11-23.

Among the key states, the Congress and its allies are projected to win a majority of the seats in Andhra, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, though in the crucial western state the NDA is seen to be gaining ground since campaigning began. The survey says the NDA has gained marginally in Jharkhand and Bengal.

The BJP appears to have arrested the anti-NDA tide in its strongholds Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and is projected to make huge gains in Congress-ruled Karnataka.

In Andhra, the survey says . Chandrababu Naidu, chief minister for the last nine years, would lose power to his Congress rival. The Telugu Desam Party chief could only fancy his chances of retaining power if a hung Assembly — the best-case scenario projected by the survey — is the outcome. Naidu’s Desam is projected to win between 126 and 138 seats in the 294-member House. On the comeback trail, the Congress, along with allies, is projected to win between 141 and 153 seats. Others could win between nine and 21 seats.

In Orissa, however, the Biju Janata Dal-BJP combine will retain power by a comfortable majority, the survey says.

The BJD-BJP combine is projected to win between 76 to 88 seats in the 147-member Assembly and the Congress could win between 47 and 59 seats.

Perhaps the biggest story of the election, the survey projects, could be the first-ever capture of power by the BJP in a southern state — in Karnataka.

According to the survey, the BJP and its ally, the Janata Dal (United), could win between 107 and 119 seats in the 224-member Assembly. The Congress is projected to win between 80 and 92 seats. Others, including former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular), could account for 19 to 31 seats in the new Assembly.

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