New Delhi, Feb. 23: The Janata Dal (United)’s big three — Union ministers George Fernandes, Sharad Yadav and Nitish Kumar — appear to be on shaky ground in their Bihar Lok Sabha constituencies due a change in political equations and electoral arithmetic.

Fernandes and Sharad won impressively from Nalanda and Madhepura in 1999, but Nitish scraped through by barely 1,300 votes in Barh. The trio won at a time when Dalit leader Ram Vilas Paswan was part of the Dal (United) and the National Democratic Alliance. Paswan has since formed the Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) and teamed up with the Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal-Left front in Bihar.

With Paswan switching sides, the three Union ministers have lost a big chunk of Dalit votes. The LJP may not win many seats in the state, but it could mar others’ prospects. There are many constituencies which have 40,000 to 50,000 Dalit voters.

Last week’s defection of Mokama mafia don Suraj Bhan from the Nitish camp to the Paswan camp is also likely to impact on the railway minister’s Barh constituency. Bhan, an upper caste Bhumihar and independent MLA, wields considerable influence in Barh, Mokama and Nalanda, at least in terms of muscle power.

Bhan had also got some Independent MLAs with a criminal background to back Nitish when he tried to prove his majority during his weeklong stint as chief minister in 2002. The two have since fallen out.

To offset the loss, the railway minister has managed to enlist the support of Bhan’s brother, also a powerful don. There is also speculation that Nitish is working on a covert deal with one-time close friend and RJD chief Laloo Prasad Yadav that could help bail him out.

Bhan’s Bhumihar background could play spoilsport in Nalanda and upset Fernandes’ calculations. Kurmis, the backward caste to which Nitish belongs, Bhumihars, Koeris, Yadavs and Muslims are the main players in the defence minister’s constituency. In 1999, the Kurmis and Bhumihars voted almost en bloc for Fernandes.

If Laloo Prasad fields a Koeri or Bhumihar candidate there, the Yadavs are expected to join hands against their common enemy — the numerically superior Kurmis. This combination can expect a section of Bhumihar, Yadav, Muslim, Dalit and Koeri votes, making Fernandes’ task even more difficult. Speaking about Bhan’s departure, a Dal (United) source said: “He is not a good enemy.”

There are rumours that non-NDA parties may field a powerful CPI candidate against Fernandes.

Food minister Sharad Yadav is also jittery, worrying if Laloo Yadav will contest against him.