Siliguri, Jan. 1: Driven out of Bhutan by the Royal Bhutan Army, the insurgents might try to regroup in the jungles of Myanmar through Arunachal Pradesh, said intelligence sources.

“Three rebels, two belonging to the Ulfa and one of the Arunachal Dragon Force (ADF), were killed in an encounter with the Indian Army on December 20 near Namsai in Arunachal Pradesh, bordering Assam’s Tinsukia district. This is one indication that the rebels are trying to shift to Myanmar. The chief of the ADF, who was captured with AK-47 rifles, pistols, grenades and cash, was leading the group to Myanmar,” an army spokesman said.

“The rebels have already started joining forces with the Nepal Maoists and set up base in the remote hill districts of eastern Nepal, bordering Darjeeling and Sikkim,” he added.

According to an official of the special branch, nearly 400 Ulfa rebels already live in camps in Myanmar.

In case the regrouping happens there, the insurgents are most likely to take the help of the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (I-M), which has several training camps in Myanmar.

“Intelligence inputs suggest that until the Ulfa and other rebel outfits reunite, a difficult task given the reverses they have suffered in Bhutan, the region can expect sporadic attacks by these insurgents to drive home the message that they are not yet finished,” said inspector-general of police (north Bengal) Bhupinder Singh.

According to intelligence sources, the rebels need a place to cool their heels until the focus shifts from them or dialogues are held with the Bhutanese government and also to plan their next course of action.

“The jungles of Myanmar are an ideal place for the rebels on the run,” he said.

Then again, Myanmar might not be the safest place to hide considering the fact that the rebels had faced a similar offensive by the Myanmarese army code-named Operation Golden Bird in 1995.

The offensive was similar to the hammer-and-anvil strategy used by Bhutan and India to overrun the rebel camps from the Himalayan kingdom.

“Many Ulfa and Northeast insurgents were either killed or captured by the troops of Indian Army, which was acting as an anvil to Myanmarese Army’s hammer, along the Mizoram border. That leaves two main options for the rebels, either Bangladesh or Nepal. But settling down in either of these countries will not be as easy at it was in Bhutan,” said senior police officer.

But unlike the Assam-Bhutan border, the frontier shared by Assam and Bangladesh border is not heavily forested, except in the Meghalaya sector. This will easily give away the infiltrators.

“The rebels will not be able to set up such extensive and well-fortified bases in Bangladesh for lack of sufficient jungle-covered terrain. The leaders will probably take shelter in the houses of their contacts but it will be difficult to maintain a strike force of several thousands,” he added.